Dragon Ball Z Bulma Doujinshi Hd

complexity, ignorance, and uncertainty: modesty is called for

is in this first part is about to reflect on why we as a (modern) human difficulties with complexity, uncertainty and ignorance deal with it.

so arrogant we are ...
Everything is really a question of mental attitude and self image: as long as we continue to believe because we, as a (project) manager, which can real life get a grip (as it still in some management training is geprädigt), this will lead to such events:

a result of the "epistemic arrogance" as it is called Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan" .


As long as we made of matter ... There
addition to our human arrogance, we are exposed to biological limits, because we are human, that is because our brain is made of matter (it would have to answer the question whether thought is elsewhere in the brain as well ...). Consider the time-limit Bremermann that describes the maximum processing speed of data processing systems . Hans J. Bremer man deduced from the equivalence of mass and energy E = mc 2 and the Planck equation, the realization that the processing of symbols than a rate of 1.35 x 10 high bit 47 / grams / second can take place.

If we venture the hypothesis that man is related as a biological being a (mechanical / electronic) data processing system, now everyone for his "maximum processing speed," calculated, due to his brain or body mass. ..

... We push the limits
knowledge: at some time, our computational ability to cope. And once any of the machines that support us in such processes. This (unconscious) feeling overwhelmed is uncomfortable and can even emergency response of the cognitive system That trigger such Joachim Funke it represents:

"The moment in which can not cope with a problem-solving person's contention, the close integration of cognition and emotion especial clarity (...). . This emergency reaction to a loss of control associated with pain, it is typically a reduction of the intellectual level, to an increased willingness to act quickly, a degenerate (...)." hypotheses (...) and a Entkonkretisierung targets

Is every person Problem solving the increasingly self-confident? ...

Error of the constructivist method
At school we learned how to solve problems. This logical, rational tional problem-solving skills is so pronounced that we unthinkingly apply even when complex issues. Fredmund Malik makes us in his book strategy of managing complex systems , pointed out the error of this constructivist method:

1. the limited intellectual capabilities of people (particularly with respect to information processing), and other peculiarities of the functioning of the human brain to be not considered.
2. the fundamental openness of virtually all complex situations (the impossibility of listing all the relevant variable and all of its relations) is not considered.
3. The inseparable bond between facts, opinions and values is not included.
4. inadequacy, incompleteness and variability of information are not sufficiently taken into account. establish
5. The possibility of stable target systems and assessment criteria will be overestimated exceptionally strong.
6. The number of generally available Alternatives is often underestimated.
7. It is hardly considered that a complex problem can be specified initially almost never: at best you only have extensive memoranda of understanding with respect to the desired solution.
8. The analytical approach is focused mainly on quantifiable aspects of a problem -> Bill precision.
9. time and cost constraints that often play in practical decision-making a specific role to be understudied.
10. Uncertainties and "irrational" human behavior can not be considered or be deliberately ignored.
11. discontinuities and unexpected developments can hardly comprehend.
12. It can not be considered difficult or that any problem is highly transient in nature and that more are expected to have unintended side effects.
13. It is not considered that complex problems rarely have a "right" solution, because often the term solution is not applicable at all.

How does a man deal with complexity?

power of people Besides the above mentioned emergency response, various attempts to handle complex situations. behaves according to Prof. Peter Kruse the man as follows:

1. Try
2. Hide
3. Rational Durchdrengen understand
4. focus on individual factors, trivialize
5. Intuitively act

Ah, the word "intuition " is now placed. The theme but we discuss in other articles ...